PhD Candidate - Chrisgone Adede

Droughts, with their increasing frequency of occurrence, especially in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), continue to negatively affect lives and livelihoods. For example, the 2011 drought in East Africa caused massive losses documented to have cost the Kenyan economy over $12bn.Consequently, the demand is ever-increasing for ex-ante drought early warning systems with not only the ability to offer drought forecasts with sufficient lead times but that are both stable and are of high bias. In this study, we build predictive models one month ahead for both drought severity and drought effects.